Dom's Dish - Friday, April 27, 2007
The NFL Draft starts tomorrow. Seven rounds over two days - 1-3 tomorrow, 4-7 on Sunday. Quinn, Russell, Peterson, Jarrett, Gaines, Calvin, Troy, Leak...all one names that have been engrained into our head for months, and this will be the moment of truth. Who goes where? I have to say, I'm not to sure about this year's draft class. Last year it was Leinert, Bush and Young as the big three - who are they this year? Is it Peterson-Quinn-Russell? Peterson-Russell-Johnson? Johnson-Russell-Thomas? Who knows? Who will be the Tom Brady or Marques Colston of 2007 - if any? Will Trent Green move to Miami? How does Dante Culpepper fit in? Do the Browns have faith in Jamal Lewis? Where do the Giants, Jets and Eagles fit in?
First, let's get a few things straight. Anything can happen, it depends on how much teams are willing to wager, whether in trades or actual draft picks. Some teams draft on need, others on talent available, unlike what anyone says, there is no exact science to it, there is some luck thrown in, as well as some real talent from a scouting perspective in selecting the right player. The draft isn't over after the first day, nor even round seven.
Now that we have laid the ground work, let's look at the key players this year. Almost everyone has JaMarcus Russell, the big guy out of LSU going to the Raiders. The only possibility out there would be if Daunte Culpepper became available through the Dolphins releasing him in favor of Trent Green. A 2 and a 7 are what the 'Fins got for Wes Welker (my bust trade of the offseason) and the Chiefs are smart enough to realize the 'Fins robbed the Patriots of those two picks. I'm glad they're holding out for a 2 and a 7 now, but you know what happens - they'll see someone on the board they really like in Round 3 and take that extra 3rd round pick and a 7th for Green. By that point, Russell, who's healthy, has been drafted by the Raiders. I won't call it a lock that Russell is in black and silver next year, but can Lane Kiffin really expect that Andrew Walter is gonna be their guy? The Raiders got to a Super Bowl with Rich Gannon a few years back - someone they didn't draft, perhaps 2007 is finally the year to make the investment in an offensive player. The Raiders #1 draft picks from 2006 back to 1997 - S, CB, OT, CB, DE, CB, LB, S, K, OT, CB, OT, DT. Not one offensive skill player! During that same time frame, only 7 of their top 3 rounds' picks were skill players: names like Jon Ritchie, Teyo Johnson, Doug Jolley, Justin Fargas, Andrew Walter, Marques Tuiasasopo and Jerry Porter. You know the names because you might have drafted them for Fantasy purposes, but they have done diddily squat and/or have been unreliable. Sure you could build around Andrew Walter and that defense, but JaMarcus has the arm. Pick one done - I just wonder if we'll hear about the signing tonight before bed time like the Mario Williams signing last year?
After that, is where it gets interesting. You know a few trades will occur, but not since the Eli deal has there been much movement at the top...until now. Calvin Johnson is still on the board. Jon Gruden is salivating. The skins need a LB and the Briggs deal is still in the works. I say at least one move will occur - either Briggs to 'Skins for the #5 pick, or the Bucs trading up to #2 for Calvin Johnson, where the Lions will get Gaines Adams and a pick from the Bucs. Aside from that, I could go on forever about each pick - who goes where, etc. But that's not my job - Mel Kiper and those other "experts" do a good enough job. Let's break down a few teams and see where they're gonna go...
NY Jets: After a playoff run last year under rookie head coach Eric the Man-genious, and a quiet but effective offseason, they're in great shape for the draft. Most list their biggest needs as CB, OLB, WR, TE and DT. Obviously their trading for Thomas Jones...for a mere 21 places in the second round was the move of the year in my opinion. Leon Washington, Nick Mangold, Brad Smith and D'Brickashaw Ferguson were their best performers from last year's draft. A second year in the system will only help Kellen Clemens as he backs up Chad, Chris Baker is a solid blocking TE, but a threat like Shockey is always a possibility - see Greg Olsen (Wayne Hills H.S. graduate). With two picks in the second round and the 25th pick in the 1st round, moving up is a possibility for the J-e-t-s Jets Jets Jets. However with the need for more young talent on the team, trading down is just as likely since the Jets only have 6 picks. It's a deep WR draft and finding a big body from a smaller school to play DT is an option. Look for the Jets to take a LB or CB in the first two rounds, followed by some receivers further down in Day 1.
NY Giants: Since they called out of the free agency period, they must be set. With eight picks and a quiet offseason (aside from letting their LT go), look for them to draft some OT help and obviously defense. ALL parts of defense. Injuries to their Defensive line have killed them, the Lavar Arrington experiment failed, their secondary are all 30-something former free agents, and oh and their down a Tiki. Aside from my being an Eagles fan, this team is going backwards...fast. Unless Eli turns things around and starts looking more like his brother than a Disney cartoon character, it's not going to matter who they draft.
Philadelphia Eagles: The questions already: Is it time to draft a QB? How about a big RB? They still need a WR, right? How about drafting a LB? What happens if B-Dawk goes down? My answers and projections - Y Y N Y Y. Andy Reid loves linemen in the first round - he's moved up to get Shawn Andrews, and got screwed taking Freddie Mitchell. They'll draft a QB - if Jon Beck of BYU is still available in the mid-to-late second round, you know Andy Reid loves his Cougars (of BYU, and K Wright). With the way Michael Bush has fallen with his broken leg, Brian Leonard because people don't know if he's a RB or FB, and Tony Hunt's size...if one of them is there in the second round - they need to take them too. Look for a first round selection of Chris Houston or Daymeion Hughes, CB's out of Arkansas or Cal respectively. Decisions, decisions - if Paul Posluzny is still available in the first round, could they take him? I actually think the Eagles will trade down at least once to acquire more picks and you know they'll make another player-for-pick trade too - possibly Jerome McDougle (if anyone out there still wants him), Dhani Jones, Sam Rayburn or William Thomas as they are deep at those positions. L.J. Smith is the big name heading into a contract year, so look for them to draft a TE in the mid rounds 4/5. You know the 6 draft picks they have will turn into more - and with their close proximity to the edge of the salary cap, trading down is an great play. It doesn't appear that we've heard much buzz about their potential picks in the first round this year - maybe that's saying something?
Some players worth pointing out that may have an impact next season?
David Harris, LB Michigan
Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
Joe Staley, OT Central Michigan
Mason Crosby, K Colorado
Dom's Dark horses:
David Ball, WR New Hampshire
Jared Zabransky, QB Boise State
Cameron Stephenson, OG Rutgers
Joe Newton, TE Oregon State
Tim Shaw, OLB Penn State
Program Alert:
NFL Draft coverage begins at 11am on Saturday - really the draft starts at 12 noon, but an hour extra of ESPN isn't bad...
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